AMSTERDAM - Dutch food exports to the United States could be drastically reduced if former U.S. President Donald Trump follows through on his plan to impose a 25 percent import tariff on European goods. An analysis released by ABN AMRO on Thursday warns that this proposal could cut Dutch food exports to the U.S. by up to 50 percent, with significant consequences for the country’s economy.
Beyond the food sector, the proposed tariffs could have broader economic repercussions for the Netherlands, potentially slowing down growth and increasing inflation. Rabobank economists predict that the Dutch economy could experience a reduction of 0.2 percentage points in 2025 growth, with a further 0.5 percentage point decline in 2026. The Dutch economy is highly dependent on exports, and these tariffs would have a direct impact on industries closely tied to the U.S., such as machinery and chemicals.
The proposed tariffs would particularly impact Dutch beer, spirits, fish, cocoa, and chocolate exports, industries that rely heavily on the American market. ABN AMRO analysts predict that Dutch brewers and liquor producers alone could see their exports fall by nearly 10 percent due to the high dependence on U.S. trade.
While the U.S. has historically been an important market for Dutch food products, including dairy and coffee, the 25 percent tariff would specifically target some of the Netherlands’ most valuable exports. Analysts from ABN AMRO estimate that Dutch food exports to the U.S. are worth approximately 2.3 billion euros annually, representing 3 percent of the country’s total food exports.
The greatest losses would reportedly be seen in sectors such as beer, spirits, and chocolate, all of which have strong market shares in the U.S. The U.S. has long been a significant importer of Dutch beer and chocolate products, and the new tariff would make these products far more expensive for American consumers.
"The U.S. is a critical market for our beer and spirits industry," said an ABN AMRO analyst. "A 25 percent tariff would likely disrupt trade relationships and make Dutch goods less competitive in the U.S. market."
Leontine Treur, an economist at Rabobank, described the 25 percent tariff scenario as a "worst-case" scenario. "Sectors closely tied to the U.S. will be hardest hit," she said. "This could lead to a ripple effect across industries that rely on American demand."
If the tariffs take effect, Rabobank anticipates a rise in inflation, with prices likely to increase by 0.4 percentage points in both 2025 and 2026. This would push up costs for consumers and businesses alike, potentially eroding purchasing power.
Despite the expected rise in inflation, Rabobank forecasts that the Dutch labor market will remain strong, with wage growth predicted at 4.8 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026. This wage increase is expected to outpace inflation, suggesting that Dutch households may continue to experience improved purchasing power, albeit at a higher cost of living.
Trump’s proposed tariff increase comes as part of a broader strategy to impose duties on various global goods, including steel, aluminum, and products from countries such as Mexico and China. If implemented, the 25 percent tariff would escalate tensions in global trade, with potentially significant consequences for the European economy.
Previously, the Netherlands was affected by U.S. tariffs on 160 food products during Trump’s first term. However, those tariffs were less impactful as they targeted products such as wine and olives, which are not major Dutch exports. This new proposal would reportedly be far more damaging due to its direct targeting of key Dutch exports.
The situation is further complicated by existing trade barriers. Rabobank’s economic forecasts had already assumed a 5 percent tariff on EU exports to the U.S., along with a 2.5 percent retaliatory tariff from Europe on American goods. However, if Trump’s plan for a full 25 percent tariff is implemented, the potential for a broader trade war would likely cause long-term economic disruption for the Netherlands and the wider European Union.
Rabobank had previously predicted moderate growth for the Dutch economy, forecasting a 1.7 percent increase in GDP for 2025, followed by 1.2 percent growth in 2026. This growth was expected to be driven by household consumption, government spending, and increasing exports. However, the proposed tariffs could hinder this growth, making it harder for the Dutch economy to maintain its current pace.
"These tariffs would disproportionately affect export-driven industries," said Rabobank. "In a worst-case scenario, we would see a much slower economic recovery in the years to come."
