CARACAS – Venezuelan crude oil deliveries to India could more than double in October and reach their highest level in nearly seven years, as steep discounts make Venezuelan barrels increasingly attractive while Russian crude becomes more expensive.
According to estimates from energy analytics firm Kpler cited by Bloomberg, Venezuelan crude deliveries to India are scheduled to reach approximately 465,000 barrels per day this month, compared with about 196,000 barrels per day in September. If all scheduled cargoes arrive and unload before the end of October, it would be the highest monthly level since December 2019.
The figure remains a projection rather than a confirmed monthly total. Kpler senior manager Sumit Ritolia expects actual October deliveries could end up closer to 350,000 barrels per day because some tankers are scheduled to reach India only on October 31 and may not unload until November.
All Venezuelan cargoes currently heading to India list Sikka as their destination. The port serves Reliance Industries’ massive Jamnagar refinery complex in Gujarat, which is capable of processing Venezuela’s heavy, high-sulfur crude.
Price is a major factor behind the renewed interest. Venezuela’s flagship Merey crude is being offered at a discount, helping compensate buyers for the longer voyage from Venezuela and the additional challenges involved in processing the dense crude. Russian Urals crude, meanwhile, has become more expensive.
Not every Indian refinery can process large volumes of Venezuelan crude. Reliance’s Jamnagar facilities are particularly suited to handling heavier grades, giving the company greater flexibility to take advantage of discounted Venezuelan supplies.
India resumed purchases of Venezuelan crude in February after an almost year-long interruption. The renewed trade has become increasingly important as Indian refiners diversify their crude supplies and reduce their exposure to more expensive Russian barrels.
Separate Reuters data show that Venezuela exported about 253,000 barrels per day to India in September. That figure measures Venezuelan exports rather than Kpler’s estimated Indian deliveries of 196,000 barrels per day, explaining the difference between the two September figures.
For Venezuela, the October increase could strengthen its position in one of the world’s largest oil-consuming markets. Whether the higher volumes can be sustained will depend on crude-price discounts, tanker rates, sanctions-related conditions and continued demand from Indian refiners.