WILLEMSTAD – A new geological research report has presented substantial theoretical oil and natural gas estimates for the Bonaire Basin south of Curaçao, while emphasizing that the figures are analytical projections rather than proven reserves or formally classified petroleum resources.
The study, published October 29, 2026, by petroleum geologist Marcel P.T. Chin-A-Lien, uses geological models and probability calculations to evaluate possible petroleum accumulations in the offshore basin between Curaçao, Bonaire and Venezuela.
According to the report, the author's earlier Bonaire Basin Petroleum-System Atlas produced median estimates of approximately 534 million barrels of oil, 342 million barrels of condensate and 9.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
These are unrisked analytical estimates, meaning they assume geological success and do not account fully for the possibility that the proposed deposits do not exist.
The figures apply to the wider modeled basin rather than exclusively to Curaçao's offshore territory.
The new study also revises the geological probabilities associated with three principal exploration categories.
For the oil exploration model associated with geological structures comparable to Venezuela's La Vela and Cumarebo fields, the estimated chance of geological success has been reduced from 55 percent to 49 percent.
For the gas-condensate model, which draws comparisons with Venezuela's Perla field, the probability has been reduced from 50 percent to 47 percent.
A third exploration model involving older sedimentary formations has been adjusted from 25 percent to 21 percent.
After incorporating these changes, the study reduces its combined risk-adjusted median estimate for the three models from approximately 912 million to 846 million barrels of oil equivalent.
The researcher stresses that this calculation is an analytical screening exercise and does not meet the standards used by the petroleum industry to classify reserves or resources.
The estimates are also not based on newly drilled wells or direct measurements of petroleum deposits in the central Bonaire Basin.
One of the report's most significant possibilities concerns natural gas.
The study suggests that certain deep geological formations could contain gas and condensate accumulations comparable in geological character to deposits discovered elsewhere in the southern Caribbean.
However, the report cautions that geological similarities do not prove that the same conditions exist offshore Curaçao.
It also acknowledges that important underlying modeling inputs remain proprietary and have not been released for independent reproduction.
The report has not undergone peer review.
Chin-A-Lien concludes that the estimated potential warrants further geological investigation, particularly through modern seismic imaging, but does not justify treating the modeled volumes as discovered petroleum.
For Curaçao, the findings raise questions about the possible long-term economic significance of offshore hydrocarbons while making clear that their existence, size and commercial viability remain uncertain.