WILLEMSTAD – Meteorologists are warning that a potentially powerful El Niño weather phenomenon could develop later this year and continue into 2027, bringing significant impacts to Curaçao and the wider Caribbean region.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and regional climate institutes, the probability of El Niño developing has risen to approximately 90 percent. Current climate models suggest sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean could rise as much as three degrees Celsius above normal, an indication that the event could become particularly strong.
El Niño occurs when ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. The phenomenon alters global weather patterns and is often associated with extreme weather events in different parts of the world.
For Curaçao and other Caribbean islands, the greatest concern is the prospect of higher temperatures, prolonged drought conditions, and increasing pressure on water resources.
Experts from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) describe the situation as a potential “multi-hazard” scenario, in which extreme heat, water shortages, and environmental stress reinforce one another. Such conditions could affect agriculture, energy production, public health, and food security throughout the region.
The warning comes as Curaçao continues to face challenges related to water management and food production. Extended dry periods could place additional strain on local agriculture and increase dependence on imported food products.
The Meteorological Department of Curaçao (Meteo) has already warned that unusually high temperatures could begin affecting the island as early as September. Forecasters have indicated that El Niño may play a significant role in driving those temperature increases.
While the prospect of hotter and drier weather raises concerns, there may be one potential benefit. Climate specialists note that El Niño typically reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Increased wind shear associated with the phenomenon tends to disrupt the formation and strengthening of tropical storms and hurricanes.
As a result, the Caribbean could experience a quieter Atlantic hurricane season than would otherwise be expected.
Nevertheless, climate experts emphasize that reduced hurricane activity does not eliminate the risks posed by El Niño. Governments, businesses, and residents are being encouraged to prepare for possible impacts, particularly those related to water conservation, food production, and protection against extreme heat.
The WMO and KNMI stress that proactive planning will be essential to lessen the effects of a strong El Niño should current forecasts materialize.
With the Atlantic hurricane season now underway and climate patterns being closely monitored worldwide, meteorologists say the coming months will provide a clearer picture of how strong the developing El Niño could become and what it may mean for Curaçao and the rest of the Caribbean.