WILLEMSTAD – A rapidly strengthening El Niño could have significant consequences for weather conditions on Curaçao and across the Caribbean in the coming months, with less rainfall, more sunny and dry days and higher temperatures expected. The risk of prolonged drought across the ABC islands is also increasing.
According to the Caribbean Weather Center, El Niño developed over the tropical Pacific Ocean earlier this year and has since intensified rapidly. Sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific are now well above their long-term averages.
The weather service estimates there is about a 70 percent chance that the phenomenon could develop into a so-called Super El Niño, potentially becoming one of the strongest ever recorded.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also expects El Niño to strengthen further. During the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, conditions associated with a strong to very strong El Niño are expected.
For the Caribbean, El Niño generally suppresses the development of tropical storms and hurricanes. The phenomenon tends to increase wind shear across the Atlantic and Caribbean, meaning winds at different levels of the atmosphere vary in speed or direction. These conditions make it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and strengthen.
Caribbean Weather Center also expects a more stable atmosphere and higher atmospheric pressure across the Atlantic region, further limiting conditions favorable for tropical cyclone development.
Historically, strong El Niño years have generally been associated with below-average Atlantic hurricane activity.
For Curaçao, however, the effects on rainfall and temperatures could be particularly important.
Higher atmospheric pressure could strengthen the trade winds, causing tropical waves to move more quickly through the region and giving them less opportunity to develop. A more stable and drier atmosphere could also favor greater amounts of Saharan dust reaching the Caribbean, further limiting the development of rain-producing clouds.
As a result, Curaçao, Aruba and Bonaire could receive substantially less rainfall than normal during the coming months. Caribbean Weather Center identifies the southern Caribbean as the part of the region facing the greatest drought risk.
The effects may continue well beyond the current Atlantic hurricane season. According to Caribbean Weather Center, dry conditions could persist through the remainder of 2026 and potentially intensify during the first part of 2027.
Less cloud cover and rainfall, combined with more hours of sunshine, could also result in temperatures remaining above seasonal averages more frequently and for longer periods.
El Niño does not mean Curaçao will receive no rain or that tropical systems are impossible. Individual tropical waves and other disturbances can still cross the Caribbean and affect the island.
Instead, the phenomenon generally makes atmospheric conditions less favorable for prolonged rainfall and tropical cyclone development.
The expected combination of reduced rainfall, higher temperatures and a potentially prolonged dry period means developments surrounding El Niño will be particularly important for the ABC islands during the coming months.