CARACAS – A new report has placed the estimated cost of Venezuela’s long-standing alliance with Cuba at $63.8 billion, sparking renewed debate over the economic and political impact of the relationship.
The study, titled “Oil for Repression: The $63.8 Billion Audit of Cuba’s Intelligence Occupation in Venezuela,” was published by the Miranda Center for Democracy and analyzes more than two decades of cooperation between Caracas and Havana.
According to the report, Venezuela transferred the equivalent of $63.8 billion in subsidized oil, associated investments, and financial concessions to Cuba, calculated in constant 2026 dollars.
The bulk of the figure—approximately $57.4 billion—represents the estimated value of oil shipments, with the remainder linked to financial arrangements and cooperation frameworks such as Petrocaribe. The report states that in nominal terms, the total transfers amounted to around $44.5 billion, later adjusted for inflation.
The origins of the arrangement date back to the 2000 cooperation agreement between then-presidents Hugo Chávez and Fidel Castro. Under that framework, Venezuela supplied oil to Cuba—initially around 53,000 barrels per day, rising to peaks of over 100,000 barrels daily in later years—often under preferential financing conditions.
The report argues that these oil shipments were not purely economic or humanitarian in nature, but part of a broader exchange that included Cuban services, advisory roles, and institutional support, including in areas of intelligence and governance.
However, it is important to note that the findings come from a policy research report, not from a judicial investigation or independent audit. The conclusions reflect the interpretation of the authors and have not been validated in a court of law.
The report’s publication nonetheless revives a long-standing and politically sensitive question: what was the true economic cost for Venezuela of sustaining its alliance with Cuba over more than two decades?
Analysts note that while cooperation agreements between the two countries are well documented, estimates of their total financial value vary widely depending on methodology, assumptions, and political perspective.
The issue remains highly relevant today, as Venezuela continues to face economic challenges and scrutiny over past policy decisions that shaped its financial and institutional trajectory.