WILLEMSTAD – Concerns that China is rapidly expanding its political influence in Curaçao and the other Caribbean parts of the Kingdom may be greater than the available evidence supports, according to a new geopolitical study commissioned through the Dutch China Knowledge Network.
The report, “Chinese Presence and Geopolitical Resilience in the Caribbean Parts of the Kingdom of the Netherlands,” finds that China's presence has increased over several decades, but primarily through migration, private businesses and Chinese diaspora networks rather than a coordinated strategy directed from Beijing.
Researchers distinguish between Chinese “presence” and Chinese state “influence.” While Chinese-owned businesses have become highly visible in supermarkets, restaurants, retail, hospitality and other commercial activities, the researchers found limited evidence that this has translated into substantial political influence by the Chinese government.
Chinese state-linked investments and diplomatic activities remain relatively modest compared with Chinese involvement elsewhere in the Caribbean.
The report says local Chinese communities also show relatively little political engagement.
According to the researchers, Curaçao, Aruba and Sint Maarten have limited formal diplomatic value to Beijing because they do not independently control foreign policy and do not have their own votes at the United Nations.
That also helps explain why the three autonomous Caribbean countries of the Kingdom have not become part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, unlike many independent countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.
The researchers nevertheless caution against concluding that foreign influence presents no risk.
As geopolitical competition between China and the United States intensifies, even limited foreign participation in strategic sectors such as telecommunications, energy, ports or digital infrastructure could become significant.
But the report's central conclusion is striking: the greatest geopolitical vulnerability facing Curaçao and the other Dutch Caribbean islands is currently not China itself.
Instead, it is their dependence on other countries for food, fuel, technology, tourism, security and essential infrastructure.
The study concludes that concerns over China should therefore form part of a much broader discussion about Curaçao's economic security and ability to withstand international disruptions.
“The main finding of this report is therefore not that Chinese influence currently poses a major threat,” the researchers conclude.
Instead, they identify the structural vulnerabilities of small and open island economies as the more immediate concern.