WILLEMSTAD – The difference between Curaçao’s official census figures and an international estimate of the Venezuelan population could easily lead to a misleading conclusion about undocumented migration on the island.
R4V estimates that 6,903 Venezuelan refugees and migrants live in Curaçao, while the 2023 Census counted 4,263 residents who were born in Venezuela. That leaves a numerical difference of approximately 2,640 people.
But those 2,640 people cannot automatically be classified as undocumented Venezuelans.
The figures measure different populations and were produced using different methodologies. The census is a population count conducted at a particular point in time, while R4V’s figure is an estimate that specifically attempts to compensate for groups that may have been undercounted.
R4V has acknowledged that people living in an irregular migration situation are likely to have been underrepresented in Curaçao’s 2023 Census. It therefore adjusted the census-based figures to account for possible undercounting and migration after the census.
That makes the 6,903 estimate potentially more representative of the broader Venezuelan migrant population, but it still does not establish how many people lack legal residence.
For example, Venezuelans who legally moved to Curaçao after the census could be included in the difference. Conversely, undocumented Venezuelans may have participated in the census and therefore already be included among the 4,263 Venezuela-born residents.
Some people counted in 2023 may also have left Curaçao since then. Others may have obtained residence permits, lost their legal status after a permit expired or regularized their situation later.
There is another statistical complication. The Census recorded 3,479 residents with Venezuelan nationality, compared with 4,263 who were born in Venezuela. Someone born in Venezuela may now hold Dutch or another nationality, meaning nationality and birthplace figures cannot be treated as interchangeable.
R4V nevertheless indicates that irregular residence is a significant issue. According to the platform, most Venezuelan refugees and migrants within the Caribbean part of its regional operation are in an irregular situation, partly because of limited opportunities to regularize their status.
In Curaçao, irregular residence also does not necessarily mean someone entered the country clandestinely. Venezuelans may have entered legally, for example as visitors, and remained after their permitted stay expired. A person may also possess a valid Venezuelan passport while lacking a valid Curaçao residence permit.
A more useful figure would therefore be the number of Venezuelan nationals who currently hold valid Curaçao residence permits.
If immigration authorities could provide that number, it could be compared with broader estimates of the Venezuelan population to produce a better-informed range for the number of people without valid residence status.
Until such data is available, the roughly 2,640-person gap between the census and the R4V estimate should not be presented as Curaçao’s undocumented Venezuelan population. It indicates uncertainty in the available population data, not an exact count of people living on the island without legal status.