THE HAGUE – The Netherlands' latest national security assessment identifies volcanic eruptions as a potentially serious natural hazard in the Caribbean part of the Kingdom, warning that volcanoes on Saba and Sint Eustatius remain active despite their long periods without eruptions.
The findings appear in the 2026 National Security Risk Assessment, prepared by the National Security Analysts Network (ANV) at the request of the Dutch National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism.
The report examines natural disasters and climate-related threats that could affect the security and stability of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
In its discussion of vulnerabilities affecting the Caribbean islands, the assessment identifies volcanic activity as a specific threat that distinguishes parts of the Caribbean Kingdom from the European Netherlands.
According to the researchers, both Saba and Sint Eustatius have volcanoes that are still considered active.
Although considerable time has passed since their last eruptions, their geological status means that future volcanic activity cannot be ruled out.
The report describes the probability of an eruption as low.
However, it emphasizes that the consequences could be extremely serious if such an event occurred.
The assessment does not predict an eruption or identify evidence that volcanic activity is currently increasing.
It also does not provide a specific timetable or probability estimate for future eruptions.
Instead, the researchers include volcanic hazards among the natural threats that must be considered when evaluating the resilience of the Caribbean part of the Kingdom.
The report's broader analysis highlights several factors that could complicate emergency responses on small islands.
These include limited infrastructure, dependence on essential service providers and reliance on transportation links for the delivery of food, medicine and emergency supplies.
If a major natural disaster damages critical infrastructure or interrupts transportation, the ability to provide assistance could be severely affected.
Such vulnerabilities are particularly relevant when considering disasters that may require evacuations or prolonged emergency operations.
The assessment emphasizes that the Caribbean islands' relatively small size and limited availability of alternative facilities can increase the consequences of major emergencies.
For Curaçao, the volcanic threat identified in the report is not a local volcanic hazard. The warning specifically concerns Saba and Sint Eustatius.
Nevertheless, major emergencies affecting neighboring islands can create a need for cooperation and assistance within the Kingdom.
The assessment forms part of the analytical foundation for updating the Kingdom's national security strategy.
While the report does not announce new volcanic monitoring programs or emergency investments, it underscores the importance of including low-probability but potentially devastating events in regional disaster preparedness.