THE HAGUE – Economic sanctions imposed by the United States against the Kingdom of the Netherlands could have severe consequences for the Caribbean islands, particularly their tourism industries and access to essential services, according to a hypothetical scenario examined in the 2026 Dutch National Security Risk Assessment.
The report, prepared by the National Security Analysts Network (ANV), examines how growing geopolitical tensions could turn international economic relationships into instruments of political pressure.
One of its four combined scenarios considers a situation in which the United States imposes targeted economic sanctions and other restrictive measures against the Netherlands and the Caribbean part of the Kingdom.
The scenario is not a description of sanctions currently imposed on Curaçao. It is an assessment of the consequences if such measures were introduced.
According to the researchers, the economic impact could be severe because the Kingdom is closely connected to international financial markets, technology companies and energy suppliers.
The report specifically identifies the Caribbean tourism sector as being heavily affected in the hypothetical scenario.
For islands such as Curaçao, which depend on international visitors and air connections, restrictions affecting economic relationships with the United States could create significant difficulties.
The assessment also identifies possible disruptions to financial transactions, fuel supplies and digital services.
American technology companies occupy a dominant position in many digital markets, while the international financial system remains closely connected to the United States.
Restrictions involving these sectors could therefore affect essential activities beyond the industries directly targeted.
The researchers warn that the consequences would depend on the duration and scope of the sanctions, as well as the availability of alternative suppliers.
A prolonged interruption affecting financial services or energy supplies could create problems across multiple sectors of the economy.
The report explains that these risks reflect a broader international trend in which economic dependence is increasingly used as a geopolitical instrument.
Countries that rely heavily on foreign providers for critical services may find themselves exposed to decisions made by governments outside their own jurisdiction.
The hypothetical scenario also examines consequences for the international standing of the Kingdom, public confidence and the functioning of democratic institutions.
Its overall impact is classified as severe.
The assessment does not estimate a specific financial loss for Curaçao or predict how many visitors the island could lose.
It also does not establish that American authorities intend to impose the measures described.
Instead, the scenario illustrates the potential vulnerability of small, internationally connected economies when political disagreements affect trade, finance and technology.
The researchers argue that strengthening domestic and regional capabilities and reducing risky dependencies could help improve resilience.
However, they also acknowledge that replacing international suppliers can be difficult, costly or impossible in the short term.
The findings place Curaçao's dependence on international tourism and services within a wider debate about the Kingdom's economic security.