THE HAGUE – Limited intensive care capacity, restricted medicine reserves and dependence on neighboring countries could make Curaçao and other Caribbean islands particularly vulnerable during another pandemic, according to the Netherlands' 2026 National Security Risk Assessment.
The report, prepared by the National Security Analysts Network (ANV), identifies infectious diseases as one of the most serious potential threats to national security.
Its analysis warns that the Caribbean part of the Kingdom faces additional challenges because of its geographical location, limited healthcare capacity and dependence on international supply networks.
According to the researchers, intensive care facilities on the islands have limited capacity, while medicines are held in relatively small quantities.
The islands also depend heavily on neighboring countries for the treatment of intensive care patients and the importation of pharmaceuticals.
During a major infectious disease outbreak, these dependencies could complicate the delivery of medical care.
The report explains that transporting vaccines and other essential medical supplies to the Caribbean can be more difficult than arranging deliveries within the European Netherlands.
As a result, authorities may need to introduce restrictive public health measures more quickly to protect residents.
Such measures could include suspending international flights and cruise operations.
The researchers note that these restrictions can have serious economic consequences because tourism represents an important source of income for the Caribbean islands.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, international flights and cruise activity declined sharply, demonstrating the economic consequences of measures intended to limit the spread of disease.
The assessment also examines healthcare staffing and the availability of specialized medical treatment.
When healthcare systems already operate with limited personnel, a major increase in patients can place additional pressure on essential services.
The situation can become more difficult when healthcare workers themselves become ill.
The report identifies intensive care treatment, ventilators, quarantine facilities, personal protective equipment and vaccines as areas where major outbreaks can create supply and capacity problems.
Although these challenges are discussed in the broader context of the Kingdom, the researchers specifically identify the Caribbean islands' limited intensive care facilities and medicine stocks as vulnerabilities.
The assessment also concludes that the likelihood of a pandemic has increased compared with the 2022 national security analysis.
It attributes this change partly to declining levels of international preparedness.
The report does not state that a new pandemic is imminent or identify a particular infectious disease as certain to cause the next global outbreak.
It also does not provide an island-by-island assessment of available hospital beds or medicine stocks.
Nevertheless, its findings underline the importance of medical preparedness and reliable international healthcare cooperation for Curaçao.
The researchers identify pandemics among the scenarios combining a high potential impact with a relatively high likelihood, making infectious disease preparedness a continuing national security priority.