THE HAGUE – Political instability and internal conflict in Venezuela could have serious consequences for Curaçao and the other Caribbean islands of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, including increased migration, organized crime and security challenges, according to a new Dutch national security assessment.
The 2026 National Security Risk Assessment, prepared by the National Security Analysts Network (ANV), identifies developments in Venezuela as an important regional security concern.
The report includes a hypothetical scenario involving the destabilization of the Venezuelan state and examines how internal conflict in a neighboring country could affect the Kingdom.
The researchers warn that the Caribbean part of the Kingdom is vulnerable to the consequences of crises and instability elsewhere in the region.
According to the assessment, such developments could create refugee movements and increase the risk of involvement in organized criminal activities, including drug trafficking originating from fragile states.
The report also highlights the potential consequences of military operations in the Caribbean Sea.
Dutch defense and police responsibilities within the Kingdom could face strategic and operational challenges as a result of American military actions in the region.
The researchers identify the possibility that the United States may seek to expand its regional sphere of influence, adding uncertainty to the Caribbean security environment.
For Curaçao, which lies close to the Venezuelan coast, these concerns are particularly relevant.
Changes in Venezuela's political or security situation could affect maritime movements, migration patterns and the operational demands placed on law enforcement and defense authorities.
The assessment places these risks within a broader international environment characterized by shifting power relations and growing geopolitical competition.
It warns that smaller countries and territories may become vulnerable when larger powers use military, economic and political influence to advance their interests.
The researchers also note that instability in parts of South America is accompanied by the influence of criminal networks, making the consequences of regional crises more complicated.
Venezuela is specifically identified alongside other countries facing political, economic and social instability.
The report does not predict that Venezuela will experience a particular conflict on a specific date, nor does it state that a new refugee movement toward Curaçao is inevitable.
Instead, the hypothetical scenario is intended to illustrate how destabilization in a neighboring country could affect the security of the Kingdom.
The assessment also does not quantify how many migrants might arrive in Curaçao or specify the additional resources that local authorities would require.
Nevertheless, the findings underline the importance of regional developments to Curaçao's national security environment.
The report demonstrates that threats to the Caribbean islands do not arise solely from natural disasters or domestic circumstances.
Political instability, organized crime and military developments in neighboring countries can also create risks that cross national borders.
The assessment is intended to contribute to an updated Security Strategy for the Kingdom of the Netherlands, covering both its European and Caribbean territories.