THE HAGUE – The Kingdom of the Netherlands faces a more dangerous and complex security environment than it did four years ago, with increasing threats from geopolitical conflict, cyberattacks, economic pressure, pandemics and natural disasters, according to a comprehensive new national security assessment.
The findings are contained in the 2026 National Security Risk Assessment, prepared by the National Security Analysts Network (ANV) at the request of the Dutch National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV).
The assessment covers the entire Kingdom, including Curaçao, Aruba, Sint Maarten and the Caribbean Netherlands.
Its purpose is to provide an analytical foundation for updating the Security Strategy for the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
The researchers conclude that international power relations have changed significantly since the previous assessment in 2022.
They describe an international environment in which established agreements and institutions are increasingly challenged, while economic relationships, technology and infrastructure can be used as instruments of political pressure.
According to the report, smaller countries are particularly vulnerable to these developments because they depend on international cooperation, trade and security arrangements.
The assessment examines 35 individual hypothetical scenarios across eight categories of threats.
These include natural disasters, infectious diseases, major accidents, terrorism, foreign interference, international military threats, economic instability and cybersecurity incidents.
The researchers also introduce four combined scenarios examining how different threats could interact and intensify one another.
These include a major flooding emergency accompanied by social unrest, excessive dependence on a dominant technology company, a war involving NATO in Europe and economic sanctions imposed against an internationally isolated Netherlands.
The report identifies pandemics, extreme heat and drought, hurricanes affecting the Caribbean, government cyberespionage and attacks on cloud service providers among the scenarios combining relatively high likelihood with serious consequences.
The assessment also identifies a potential large-scale coastal flood and a pandemic as scenarios with catastrophic consequences.
The researchers emphasize that these are plausible scenarios developed for risk assessment, not predictions that the events will occur.
One of the report's principal conclusions concerns the limited capacity available to respond to multiple emergencies.
When several threats occur simultaneously or in rapid succession, emergency services, healthcare institutions and other essential organizations may struggle to maintain their operations.
The researchers warn that such pressures can increase the consequences of events that might otherwise be manageable individually.
For the Caribbean part of the Kingdom, the report identifies additional vulnerabilities arising from the islands' small size, dependence on external supplies and limited alternatives for critical infrastructure.
It notes that a threat affecting a single essential facility can have particularly serious consequences for a local island community, even when its impact on the Kingdom as a whole appears comparatively limited.
This distinction is important because national-level assessments may not fully convey the consequences of a disaster for a small island population.
The researchers argue that governments must make strategic choices about how to strengthen resilience while managing limited resources.
They identify international cooperation, investment in essential capabilities, stronger institutions and improved public preparedness as important elements of that effort.
The report also emphasizes that resilience cannot be achieved by government alone.
Businesses, public institutions and residents all have roles in maintaining essential services and preparing for disruption.
The assessment does not provide a separate ranking of Curaçao's overall security preparedness or establish how much the island should invest in specific measures.
Nevertheless, its central conclusion is that postponing strategic decisions about security, infrastructure and international dependencies could leave the Kingdom increasingly vulnerable.
The report warns that the growing number of interconnected threats requires urgent choices to strengthen national and societal resilience.