WILLEMSTAD – Curaçao's rapid tourism expansion is pushing the island toward conditions associated with overtourism, with visitor numbers growing faster than infrastructure, environmental systems and communities can accommodate, according to a new Tourism Carrying Capacity Study.
The study, commissioned by the Curaçao Tourist Board and Ministry of Economic Development and conducted by Sustainable Travel International and George Washington University, warns that Curaçao is approaching a critical point in the development of its tourism industry.
Tourism now accounts for nearly one-third of Curaçao's gross domestic product. Its total economic footprint increased from approximately $1.8 billion in 2019 to $2.7 billion in 2024.
Stayover tourism has expanded particularly quickly. Curaçao received 700,242 stayover visitors in 2024, compared with 463,683 in 2019, representing an increase of approximately 50 percent.
If the current growth trajectory continues, the study projects that Curaçao could reach around 1.5 million stayover visitors annually by 2030. Researchers emphasize the speed of that expansion: Aruba took 24 years to grow from approximately 800,000 overnight visitors to 1.4 million, while Curaçao could reach a comparable scale considerably faster.
The concern is not simply the number of tourists, but whether Curaçao's infrastructure and natural environment can support them.
In 2024, the island received 9.85 visitors for every resident. The study considers five visitors per resident a sustainable benchmark, meaning Curaçao was already at nearly twice that level.
By 2030, the ratio could increase to 14.91 visitors per resident. Aruba, which the report describes as a widely cited overtourism case study, has a ratio of 21.4.
Other indicators are also raising concerns. Visitor density reached 3,458 tourists per square kilometer in 2024, exceeding the study's sustainable threshold of 3,000.
Accommodation density increased from 4.9 rooms per 100 residents in 2021 to 6.2 in 2024, indicating that tourism accommodation is expanding faster than the resident population. The report warns that this could have consequences for land use, housing affordability and the character of local communities.
Pressure becomes particularly visible during peak cruise days, when as many as 10,000 cruise passengers can be ashore simultaneously.
Researchers warn that the systems supporting both residents and tourists are already approaching their limits. Curaçao's sewage infrastructure is inadequate, its landfill is approaching capacity, airport capacity is becoming constrained, and indicators for coastal health and marine biodiversity have reached critical levels.
The study examines three possible paths toward 2030.
Continuing the current supply-driven approach would produce the greatest economic growth, but also place the greatest burden on infrastructure, the environment and communities.
A second option, described as "guided growth," would allow tourism to continue expanding while aligning development more closely with Curaçao's capacity.
A third scenario would temporarily slow new development, allowing infrastructure and other systems time to catch up. That approach would most effectively reduce system overload but would also limit short-term economic gains.
The researchers ultimately favor stronger management of tourism growth, warning that under current trends Curaçao is entering "high-risk conditions" that could compromise community well-being as well as the attractiveness of the island as a destination.
The report concludes that Curaçao has only a limited window to intervene. Decisions made during the next two years could determine whether the island manages tourism growth or whether that growth begins to dictate Curaçao's development.