THE HAGUE – A major decline in the value of the United States dollar, accompanied by an American recession, could place Caribbean currencies under pressure and cause a significant contraction in tourism, according to a scenario examined in the Netherlands' 2026 National Security Risk Assessment.
The assessment, prepared by the National Security Analysts Network (ANV), includes a hypothetical financial crisis scenario titled “Dollar in Freefall.”
The researchers examine what could happen if concerns about the independence of the United States Federal Reserve contribute to declining confidence in the American economy.
In the scenario, weakening confidence leads to a deterioration in the United States' creditworthiness and a movement of capital out of the country.
The resulting financial instability affects the wider international economy.
According to the assessment, currencies in the Caribbean part of the Kingdom come under pressure as the dollar declines.
The scenario also anticipates that an American recession would reduce tourism activity in the Caribbean.
For Curaçao, these developments are particularly relevant because of the island's economic connections with the United States and its reliance on international visitors.
The Caribbean guilder, introduced in Curaçao and Sint Maarten in 2025, is pegged to the U.S. dollar.
A major international currency crisis could therefore raise questions about exchange-rate stability, purchasing power and the broader economic environment.
However, the Dutch report does not conclude that the Caribbean guilder's exchange-rate arrangement will collapse.
It identifies pressure on Caribbean currencies as one possible consequence of the hypothetical financial crisis.
The researchers also examine how financial instability could spread through banking and other economic sectors.
In the scenario, a systemically important financial institution experiences serious difficulties, while the Dutch economy is also affected.
The resulting crisis produces significant economic losses, declining confidence and pressure on international financial institutions.
The report warns that the global position of the dollar is important not only for trade and finance but also for the ability of Western governments to impose international sanctions.
A weakening dollar could reduce the effectiveness of financial measures used to influence other countries.
The assessment places the scenario within a broader discussion of changing economic relationships between major powers.
It identifies trade disputes, protectionist policies and the increasing use of economic pressure as factors contributing to uncertainty.
The report does not predict an imminent collapse of the dollar or provide a specific exchange-rate forecast for Curaçao.
Nor does it quantify the potential decline in Curaçao's tourism revenue under the scenario.
Instead, the researchers use the hypothetical crisis to demonstrate how developments in the American financial system could affect smaller economies that depend heavily on international trade, tourism and foreign currencies.
The findings underline the importance of monitoring international economic risks when assessing the financial resilience of the Caribbean part of the Kingdom.