WILLEMSTAD – Curaçao and the other Caribbean parts of the Kingdom face six structural vulnerabilities that could leave them exposed during international crises, regardless of whether the external pressure comes from China, the United States or another country, according to a new geopolitical study.
The report identifies dependence on imports and international supply chains as the first major vulnerability.
The second is continued dependence on imported fossil fuels combined with insufficient renewable energy capacity.
Third is dependence on foreign digital and telecommunications infrastructure, including international data connections.
The fourth vulnerability involves different regulations and safeguards across the countries of the Kingdom, particularly concerning procurement, data, critical infrastructure and technology.
Fifth is heavy dependence on external security partners and limited local specialist capacity.
The sixth involves cross-border financial flows, underground banking and other financial arrangements that can be difficult to detect when money moves through multiple jurisdictions.
The researchers propose six corresponding areas of action: diversify external dependencies, expand renewable energy, modernize digital infrastructure, strengthen safeguards in strategic sectors, improve security cooperation and increase the ability to detect illicit cross-border financial flows.
One of the report's most significant conclusions is that these vulnerabilities should not be viewed exclusively through the lens of China.
In several crucial areas, the islands are considerably more dependent on the United States and the Netherlands than on China.
The report therefore recommends assessing foreign investment and strategic infrastructure according to the risks created by dependency rather than simply the nationality of the investor.
It also calls for individual risk assessments for Curaçao, Aruba, Sint Maarten and the Caribbean Netherlands rather than treating all six islands as though they face identical risks.
The authors conclude that geopolitical resilience should become a permanent subject at the highest level of Kingdom cooperation.
They recommend discussing it through the Four-Country Consultation between the prime ministers, regular consultations involving Justice and Defense, IPKO and relevant Caribbean and European security forums.
The report's central message is that China's current influence is not the primary threat.
Instead, Curaçao and its neighboring islands remain vulnerable because their small economies depend heavily on outside countries and companies to provide many of the things necessary to keep society functioning.