WILLEMSTAD – Curaçao is expected to experience higher inflation in 2026 as rising international oil prices and transportation costs work their way into local fuel, electricity, transportation and imported goods, according to the Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten (CBCS).
The Central Bank now projects inflation in Curaçao at 2.5 percent for 2026. Inflation is expected to ease only slightly to 2.4 percent in 2027.
The forecast comes at a time when Curaçao residents are already confronting increases in several essential household expenses.
According to the CBCS September 2026 Economic Bulletin, higher international oil prices and transportation costs associated with developments in the Middle East are among the principal factors behind the expected increase.
For a small island economy that imports a large share of what it consumes, changes in international energy and shipping costs can eventually be reflected in prices paid locally.
The Bank expects the effects to become visible particularly through domestic fuel, electricity and transportation prices.
Sint Maarten faces similar pressures, with inflation projected to reach 2.8 percent in 2026 before declining to 2.3 percent next year.
The CBCS expects inflationary pressures to moderate somewhat in 2027 based on anticipated developments in international oil prices, transportation costs and inflation among the countries with which Curaçao and Sint Maarten conduct much of their trade.
However, the Bank warns that considerable uncertainty surrounds those projections.
One of the most important risks is the continuing conflict in the Middle East. Further disruption of global energy markets or international shipping routes could increase transportation and import costs beyond current expectations.
That could simultaneously produce higher inflation and weaker economic growth.
International trade tensions represent another risk that has become more prominent since the CBCS published its previous projections in June.
Curaçao and Sint Maarten are not directly exposed to most of the tariff measures currently affecting global trade. Nevertheless, the Central Bank warns that the islands could still experience indirect consequences.
A deterioration in the international economy could affect tourism demand, while tariffs and trade disruptions elsewhere could increase the cost of imported products. Greater global uncertainty could also influence investment decisions.
The risks therefore extend beyond whether Curaçao itself is directly targeted by international trade measures.
There is, however, a potential regional counterweight.
The CBCS says further normalization of economic relations with Venezuela could create new opportunities for Curaçao because of the island’s strategic location and existing infrastructure. An improvement in Venezuela’s economic conditions could also gradually increase regional trade and travel.
The Bank nevertheless describes the overall balance of risks surrounding its economic projections as tilted to the downside.
That means the CBCS still expects Curaçao’s economy to grow, but considers the possibility of developments producing weaker-than-expected results greater than the possibility of unexpectedly stronger growth.
With GDP projected to expand by 2.8 percent this year, Curaçao is not facing an economic downturn. The concern identified by the Central Bank is different: external developments over which the island has little control could make that growth more expensive for consumers by increasing the cost of energy, transportation and imported goods.