WILLEMSTAD – Aging chemical installations in the Caribbean part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands increase the risk of serious industrial accidents, while a major oil spill could cause lasting damage to coral reefs, marine ecosystems and tourism, according to a new Dutch national security assessment.
The warning appears in the 2026 National Security Risk Assessment, prepared by the National Security Analysts Network (ANV).
The researchers examine industrial accidents and transportation disasters as potential threats to national security.
According to the report, the Caribbean islands depend on maritime deliveries of fuel and therefore maintain facilities for the storage and transfer of petroleum products.
These installations can experience accidents or leaks, as is also the case with oil terminals elsewhere.
The assessment identifies the relatively advanced age of chemical installations in the Caribbean part of the Kingdom as a factor increasing the probability of chemical accidents.
The report does not identify specific Curaçao installations as unsafe or establish that a major accident is imminent.
Instead, it highlights a broader regional vulnerability related to aging industrial infrastructure.
The researchers also explain that the permanent closure of Aruba's refinery has reduced the risk of a major industrial accident there compared with earlier assessments.
A particular concern for the Caribbean islands is the potential environmental impact of an industrial accident.
The waters surrounding the islands contain vulnerable ecosystems, including coral reefs and sea turtle nesting areas.
According to the assessment, a large-scale oil spill could cause long-term damage to these ecosystems.
Such an incident could also produce significant economic losses because tourism depends partly on the quality of the natural environment.
The researchers warn that major environmental damage could reduce tourism revenue in addition to the immediate costs of cleanup and damage to infrastructure.
The report also identifies limited capacity to combat oil spills as a vulnerability in the Caribbean region.
This could complicate efforts to contain a major discharge and protect sensitive coastal environments.
Beyond chemical accidents, the assessment examines the risks associated with transportation disasters.
A serious accident involving an aircraft or cruise ship could result in numerous casualties and impose substantial demands on local emergency services.
The researchers emphasize that the islands have limited capacity to accommodate large numbers of victims.
Transportation accidents could also have consequences for the wider economy if a port or airport becomes temporarily unusable.
Such damage could interrupt the arrival of essential goods and supplies on which the islands depend.
For Curaçao, the findings connect industrial safety, environmental protection, emergency medical capacity and economic resilience.
The report does not provide a specific assessment of Curaçao's oil spill response equipment or identify the financial resources required to improve it.
However, it warns that the combination of aging installations, sensitive marine environments and limited emergency response capacity can make major accidents especially consequential for Caribbean island communities.