THE HAGUE – Curaçao and the other Caribbean islands face growing risks from extreme rainfall, coastal flooding and rising sea levels, according to a new Dutch national security assessment that warns of potentially severe consequences for coastal communities and essential infrastructure.
The 2026 National Security Risk Assessment, prepared by the National Security Analysts Network (ANV), identifies flooding as one of the major natural hazards confronting the Caribbean part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
The report explains that the islands have limited natural capacity to absorb or retain heavy rainfall, increasing their vulnerability when large quantities of rain fall within a short period.
As climate change affects rainfall patterns, the risk of extreme precipitation and resulting flooding is expected to increase.
The assessment also identifies rising sea levels as an additional threat to coastal areas.
For islands such as Curaçao, where important economic activities and infrastructure are concentrated near the coastline, flooding could affect residential areas, commercial facilities and public services.
The researchers specifically identify hotels, airports, electricity facilities and water infrastructure among the types of assets that can be exposed to coastal hazards across the Caribbean islands.
Damage to such facilities could disrupt tourism, transportation and the supply of essential services.
The report warns that flooding may have consequences extending beyond the immediate area affected.
Electricity interruptions, damage to roads and telecommunications failures can complicate rescue operations and prevent residents from accessing essential services.
The risk becomes particularly serious when flooding develops rapidly, leaving limited time for evacuation or protective measures.
The assessment also examines the potential consequences of tsunamis generated by undersea earthquakes.
Although the report does not predict that a tsunami will strike Curaçao, it identifies such events as a potentially catastrophic hazard for the Caribbean part of the Kingdom.
According to the researchers, a tsunami could cause fatalities and injuries, damage critical infrastructure and severely disrupt economic activity and daily life.
The report explains that the unpredictable nature of tsunamis and the limited time available for warning and evacuation could make their consequences especially severe.
In some circumstances, the consequences could be greater than those of a hurricane because residents and emergency services may have considerably less time to prepare.
The researchers also draw attention to the relationship between changing rainfall patterns and erosion.
Extended dry periods followed by intense rainfall can increase the movement of soil and sediment, creating additional environmental and infrastructure challenges.
These findings are particularly relevant to Curaçao, where the management of stormwater, protection of coastal infrastructure and maintenance of drainage systems are important elements of disaster preparedness.
However, the assessment does not provide a Curaçao-specific flood map, identify individual neighborhoods at risk or estimate the financial cost of a major flooding event on the island.
Its conclusions are part of a broader national security analysis intended to identify potential threats across the Kingdom.
The findings nevertheless reinforce the need to consider extreme rainfall and coastal flooding as serious risks when planning infrastructure, emergency response systems and future development.