THE HAGUE – A new Dutch national security risk assessment warns that Curaçao and the other Caribbean islands of the Kingdom of the Netherlands face significant vulnerabilities to climate-related disasters because of their limited size, dependence on essential infrastructure and reliance on imported goods.
The findings are contained in the 2026 National Security Risk Assessment, specifically the thematic report on Climate and Natural Disasters, prepared by the National Security Analysts Network (ANV) at the request of the Dutch National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV).
The assessment, published through the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), examines how natural disasters and extreme weather could affect the security and stability of the Kingdom.
Although the report covers both the European and Caribbean parts of the Kingdom, it identifies several circumstances that make the Caribbean islands particularly vulnerable.
One of the main concerns is the limited availability of alternative infrastructure and essential services.
According to the researchers, Caribbean islands frequently depend on a single major provider for critical services, such as electricity generation or hospital care.
When one of these facilities is damaged or becomes inoperable, the consequences can extend across an entire island.
The report explains that the small geographical size of the islands and their limited infrastructure redundancy create vulnerabilities that are different from those faced by larger countries.
This situation becomes particularly serious during natural disasters, when several essential services could be disrupted simultaneously.
Electricity failures, interruptions in drinking water supplies, damage to telecommunications networks and disruptions to transportation could significantly complicate emergency response operations.
The researchers also highlight the islands' dependence on imported food, medicine and other essential goods.
Because local and strategic reserves are limited, disruptions to airports or seaports could quickly affect the availability of supplies.
For Curaçao, where maritime and air connections are essential to the functioning of the economy, these findings raise important questions about disaster preparedness and the ability to maintain essential services during prolonged emergencies.
The report does not conclude that Curaçao is currently experiencing such a breakdown. Instead, it identifies structural vulnerabilities that could increase the consequences of future disasters.
Climate change is expected to intensify several of these threats.
The researchers identify rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, extreme precipitation, flooding and rising sea levels as developments that could increasingly affect the Caribbean part of the Kingdom.
Periods of drought followed by intense rainfall could also increase erosion and create additional challenges for infrastructure and the environment.
The assessment emphasizes that these developments threaten not only the safety and well-being of residents but also the tourism sector, an important source of income for the Caribbean economies.
Disasters affecting coastal areas, transportation infrastructure or essential utilities could therefore have consequences extending well beyond the immediate physical damage.
The report forms part of the analytical foundation for updating the Security Strategy for the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
Its geographical scope covers the entire Kingdom, although the researchers explain that the assessment focuses on scenarios with implications for national security rather than every possible local emergency.
For Curaçao, the findings underline the importance of maintaining emergency response capabilities, protecting critical infrastructure and developing arrangements to ensure that essential supplies remain available when normal transportation networks are interrupted.
The assessment does not provide a specific new investment plan for Curaçao or establish whether the island's existing emergency preparations are adequate.
Nevertheless, it identifies the dependence on a limited number of critical facilities as a fundamental vulnerability that deserves attention in future disaster planning.