THE HAGUE, WILLEMSTAD – The Netherlands’ Scientific Climate Council will examine how climate change could influence migration within countries and across international borders, an issue that could eventually have implications for Curaçao and the wider Caribbean.
The study is part of the Scientific Climate Council’s (WKR) work program for 2026–2027 and is being prepared jointly with the Dutch Advisory Council on Migration.
According to the WKR, the consequences of climate change can become either a direct or indirect factor behind population movements. The councils will examine the relationship between climate change and migration, the uncertainties surrounding that relationship, the governance challenges it creates and possible consequences for Dutch policy.
The WKR has confirmed separately that the study will be accompanied by a symposium intended to bring scientific knowledge and policymaking together.
Although the work program does not specifically predict increased migration toward Curaçao, the subject is relevant for the island because of its geographical position in the Caribbean and its proximity to South America.
The migration study also comes as the WKR launches a separate investigation into climate resilience throughout the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
In that project, Curaçao, Aruba, Sint Maarten, Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba are explicitly included. The Climate Council says the Caribbean part of the Kingdom is particularly vulnerable to climate change and is increasingly experiencing its consequences.
Earlier research by the WKR and the Dutch Health Council also found that several climate risks affecting the Caribbean Netherlands are relevant to the neighboring autonomous countries, including Curaçao. These include increasing temperatures and risks affecting food and drinking-water supplies, healthcare and other essential services.
The new migration project could therefore add another dimension to the climate debate by examining not only what climate change does to individual territories, but also how deteriorating conditions in one place can affect population movements elsewhere.
The WKR is careful, however, not to present climate change as the sole explanation for migration. Its planned study will specifically examine how climate change interacts with migration and where uncertainties remain.
For Curaçao, that distinction will be important. The report does not conclude that the island should expect a new wave of climate migrants, nor does it identify Curaçao as a future destination.
Instead, the research opens a broader policy question for small Caribbean territories: how should governments prepare if climate change increasingly becomes one of several factors influencing migration within the region?
The WKR says its climate-and-migration publication is scheduled for the fall of 2026.