WILLEMSTAD – Curaçao could experience a relatively dry rainy season in the coming months, with long-range weather models indicating below-normal rainfall between October 2026 and January 2027, according to weather observer Alfredo Capello.
The outlook comes after a relatively dry August at a monitoring location in Van Engelen, where a total of 19 millimeters of rain was recorded during the month. That was more than 45 percent below the location’s August average of 35 millimeters.
Rainfall was almost identical to August 2025, when 18.6 millimeters was measured at the same location. Historical measurements show considerable variation, however. The wettest August there was recorded in 1981, with 155.4 millimeters of rainfall, while August 2005 passed without any measurable rain.
Most of last month’s precipitation occurred during the first half of August, when 13.5 millimeters was recorded. August 3 was the wettest day of the month, producing 8.5 millimeters.
Rain was more frequent but considerably lighter during the second half of August. Measurable precipitation was recorded on seven days, but daily totals never exceeded 2 millimeters.
Thunderstorm activity was also below average. Thunder was heard on two days during August, compared with an average of 3.6 days at the Van Engelen monitoring location. Most lightning activity reportedly remained over the sea.
Of greater concern is what could happen during the months ahead. According to Capello, computer models currently suggest that rainfall between October and January could remain below normal.
Those months are particularly important because Curaçao normally receives much of its annual rainfall during the final months of the year. If the current projections materialize, the island could therefore experience a relatively weak rainy season.
There are, however, important limitations to the outlook. Long-range rainfall forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty and can change as atmospheric and oceanic conditions develop.
The August figures should also not be interpreted as representative of the entire island. They come from a single monitoring location in Van Engelen, and rainfall can vary substantially between different parts of Curaçao, particularly during localized showers and thunderstorms.