WILLEMSTAD – A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could affect Curaçao through higher fuel and import prices, weaker household purchasing power and eventually lower tourism demand, according to the Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten (CBCS).
The Central Bank says disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains an important threat to the global economy.
Although a June 2026 U.S.-Iran agreement temporarily reduced hostilities and established a ceasefire framework, the CBCS says maritime traffic through the Strait has remained well below pre-conflict levels.
The situation remains volatile, with disagreements over Iran's nuclear program, management of the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional security arrangements creating a continuing risk of renewed escalation.
For Curaçao, the effects could arrive through several channels.
Higher energy prices would increase fuel and other import costs. That could push inflation higher and further weaken the purchasing power of households.
Higher transportation and travel costs could also eventually affect tourism.
The CBCS says tourism has remained resilient so far but warns that a prolonged increase in energy and travel costs could weigh on demand from Curaçao's principal visitor markets.
Investment confidence could also suffer.
The Central Bank has already revised Curaçao's inflation forecast upward to 2.5 percent for 2026 and 2.4 percent for 2027, partly because of expected international oil-price developments.
The exposure illustrates one of the structural vulnerabilities of a small, open island economy.
Curaçao may be thousands of kilometers from the Middle East, but disruptions to international energy markets and shipping routes can still reach local households through the prices of fuel, transportation and imported goods.
The CBCS consequently describes the risks surrounding Curaçao's economic outlook as tilted to the downside, despite continued growth and the strong performance of tourism.