Not even the most apocalyptic specialist in the tourism industry could have anticipated what we are experiencing. Only months ago we reported solid financial results and growth forecasts in the most important companies in the tourism market, but Covid-19 has transversely crossed each niche of this business until bringing it to its knees.
The question now is who will be left standing and under what conditions. Here the airlines seem to have the best chance of being protected by the states, but not without consequence. Meanwhile, hotel chains, cruise lines, car rental companies, etc. seem to be the ones most at risk of being seriously damaged. Of course we take it for granted that agencies and operators will depend on a miracle to stay alive. Even so, what we presume is that those who may come to operate after this catastrophe will be able to restart the conditions of negotiation with their suppliers, for example with the airlines, which over and over again have shown their back leaving commissions at 0. That is, the trade will return according to what we see as a fundamental role for the future.
Tourism, the first victim
Once again, our industry has been the first victim of a pandemic that weeks later has begun to engulf the accounts of all kinds of companies. The latest WTTC research estimates that up to 75 million jobs are at immediate risk in tourism. The report reveals a possible loss of GDP in travel and tourism of up to $ 2.1 trillion in 2020. WITC also estimates that a staggering one million jobs are lost every day in the Travel and Tourism sector due to the radical effect of the coronavirus pandemic. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to have a greater impact with up to 49 million jobs at risk across the region, representing a loss of nearly $ 800 billion b GDP in travel and tourism. The latest figures in Europe suggest that up to 10 million Travel & Tourism jobs are at risk, totaling a loss of almost $ 552 billion.
The United States, Canada and Mexico combined could lose up to $ 570 billion combined with nearly 7 million travel and tourism jobs at risk. Other countries that are expected to be seriously affected include Brazil, the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, France, Japan, Indonesia and India.
Oxford Economics (OE) believes the virus will have a high but short impact on Chinese travel and tourism, and believes there will be a rapid recovery. The expected recovery periods vary depending on the type of trip. In general, the recovery is expected to start in the second half of this year (2020), which is consistent with previous health outbreaks, for one-way and domestic trips.
A lost year
Given the unrivaled introduction of travel restrictions worldwide, the United Nations specialized agency for tourism expects international tourist arrivals to decrease by 20-30% in 2020 compared to 2019 figures However, UNWTO stresses that these numbers are based on the latest developments as the world community faces an unprecedented social and economic challenge and should be interpreted with caution in view of the extremely uncertain nature of the current crisis.
An expected drop of between 20-30% could translate into a decrease in international tourism revenue (exports) of between US $ 300-450 billion, almost a third of the US $ 1.5 billion generated in 2019. Taking into account the Past market trends, this would mean that between five and seven years of growth will be lost with COVID-19. Putting this in context, UNWTO notes that in 2009, following the global economic crisis, international tourist arrivals decreased by 4%, while the SARS outbreak caused a decrease of just 0.4% in 2003.
UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “Tourism is among the most affected of all economic sectors. However, tourism is also united to help tackle this immense health emergency, our first and highest priority, as we work together to mitigate the impact of the crisis, particularly on employment, and to support broader recovery efforts to through job creation and the promotion of economic well-being worldwide.
