The ABC islands—Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao—were never asked if they wanted to host superpower rivalries. Yet today, because of Dutch–U.S. security choices, they risk becoming the frontline in a conflict not of their own making.
Geography as a Trap
The islands are close enough to see Venezuela on a clear day.
• Aruba is about 20 kilometers from the Paraguaná Peninsula.
• Curaçao lies roughly 65 kilometers from the Venezuelan coast.
• Bonaire is only a little farther.
That proximity alone makes the islands vulnerable whenever tensions rise. When Caracas mobilizes forces in Falcón or Sucre, or when Washington stages interdiction flights from Curaçao, the islands are not spectators—they are in the middle.
The Kingdom’s Alignment
For decades, the Netherlands has anchored its Caribbean defense posture in the ABC islands. The Cooperative Security Locations (CSL) at Curaçao’s Hato Airport and Aruba’s Reina Beatrix Airport allow the U.S. to fly counter-drug missions and regional surveillance. The Dutch Caribbean Coast Guard and Royal Netherlands Navy coordinate closely with U.S. Southern Command through JIATF-South.
From Washington’s view, this is smart forward positioning. From The Hague’s perspective, it demonstrates NATO reliability and Caribbean security.
But for island residents, it comes with heavy risks. By hosting these operations, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao are no longer neutral neighbors. They appear, in Venezuelan eyes, as extensions of U.S. military power.
Escalation in 2025
The danger is no longer abstract. In September, the United States struck Venezuelan boats it accused of drug trafficking. Caracas responded with large-scale exercises on the Caribbean coast, including air-defense drills and amphibious maneuvers. At the same time, President Nicolás Maduro announced preparations for emergency powers in case of “external commotion.”
With each step, the ABC islands move deeper into the blast zone of a confrontation they did not invite.
Risks for the Islands
Strategic Targeting
If tensions escalate, Caracas could consider the CSL sites or naval operations based in Willemstad and Oranjestad as legitimate targets. Hybrid actions—cyberattacks, drones, or maritime harassment—require little effort from across such a short distance.
Civilian Safety
One misfire or mistaken interception could land on schools, cruise ports, or oil storage terminals. Civil aviation routes that connect the islands to the world pass directly over contested waters.
Economic Fragility
Tourism, shipping, and fuel storage depend on perceptions of safety. Instability—even rumor—can disrupt flights, cancel cruises, and freeze investments overnight.
Democratic Deficit
Decisions on defense and foreign policy are taken in The Hague, not in Oranjestad, Kralendijk, or Willemstad. Yet it is island residents who would bear the consequences.
The Neutrality Question
The ABC islands have long been bridges between Venezuela and the Caribbean, bound by commerce, culture, and migration. That bridge role could provide room for dialogue and de-escalation. But as long as the islands host U.S. operations, their image as neutral mediators erodes.
A Call for Debate
This is not about choosing Washington or Caracas. It is about recognizing that geography places the ABC islands at risk whenever the Kingdom chooses alignment without consultation.
The central question is simple but urgent: Are the islands safer because of U.S.–Dutch bases, or are they more exposed because of them?
Three hundred thousand lives depend on the answer. The debate should not remain confined to the Dutch Parliament or the Pentagon. It must also happen here, openly, in the plazas and parliaments of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao.
Because if conflict erupts, the first to feel the heat will not be Washington or The Hague. It will be us.
