We’ve been hearing & reading so many clichés coming from Guaido about President Maduro & Venezuela status quo, the latest update he gave was about his country being in its final stage to have a regime change based on some unknown specific talks with high ranking military members( Reuters), slogans like “people don’t like him” or “people reject him” were used from his anti Chavismo vocabulary against Maduro since the day he assumed his interim leadership although its ironic to call him president when days ago US special representative for Venezuela “Elliott Abrams” couldn’t explain enough how Guaido has become a president, as to the Venezuelan constitution, the National Assembly has passed a resolution that states that 30 days period of interim presidency will not start counting until the day Maduro leaves power, which means the 30 days doesn’t start now it starts after Maduro, is that constitutional enough?!
For the US the National Assembly is the only legitimate democratic institution left in Venezuela , their interpretation of the constitution is that as of the date of this alleged term of Maduro(re-elected January 2018) , the presidency is vacant, so basically Guaido now is the interim president of the interim(temporary period) that doesn’t exist yet since the 30 day end to his interim presidency starts counting when there is no Maduro , so he is interim president without power to exercise? Not clear enough?
Theoretically Maduro is still president but not Geo politically after the US & Canada and many other countries have recognized Guaido, when Hugo Chavez died Maduro replaced him for 30 days and after this period he called for elections and he won, in 2015 the opposition in Venezuela has won a majority of seats in the National Assembly which is the legislative entity representing different national parties after nearly two decades of government coalition dominance, this Assembly in addition to passing legislations, can initiate impeachment procedures against government officials but not the president who can only be removed through a referendum.
After this defeat and out of fear of losing the next elections amid economic, financial and humanitarian crisis, Maduro called for elections in 2017 to create another Constituent Assembly, which is basically another Congress designed specifically to rewrite the Constitution and the candidates were all Maduro’s supporters, the difference this time is that this election was ordered by a decree, with no referendum indicating that a majority wanted a change & the National Assembly had been cut off from its functions when Maduro invoked article 347 of the Venezuelan Constitution, which reads as follows:
"The Venezuelan people are the depositary of the original constituent power, in the exercise of that power, it can convene a National Constituent Assembly with the purpose of transforming the state, creating a new legal system and drafting a new Constitution."
Maduro stated that the Constituent Assembly is an initiative that will resolve political and economic challenges, but it didn’t , in June 2018 the Constituent Assembly issued a decree calling for elections , and Maduro won again but since the National Assembly’s power was stripped of , he made his presidential oath in front of Venezuela supreme court of justice, critics worldwide said that by doing this Maduro lost his legitimacy to become a president for a new term.
The National Assembly refused to accept this election and although its being deprived from exercising its powers, it still exists as a congress ,in January 2019 Guaido was elected as its president and he refused to recognize Maduro and proclaimed himself as interim president with the blessings of the US, stating that Maduro violated the constitution and since then the situation is escalating day by day, recently Venezuela’s Supreme Court has initiated an investigation of Guaido accusing him for helping foreign countries interfere in internal matters, complete chaos and confusion of understanding what is really happening , while Curacao north side is now the official port of entry for Venezuelan refugees to avoid being caught by the police, more than 15000 already entered illegally , crossing 65 km of sea by small boats, making their way through the edgy rocky side ,some say this is a suicide mission but it is still better than being left in Venezuela, even there are people who are coming back to Curacao after being deported, and most of those living illegally here are hiding ,in a time where the island is experiencing a bad economy & high unemployment rate .
To put more pressure on the opposition, Guaido’s right hand man Roberto Marrero was arrested and accused of plotting attacks against Maduro & on Sunday, the front page of one pro-Maduro tabloid, Ultimas Noticias, mentioned that Guaido could face arrest. “Guaidó brought in assassins to commit acts of terror,” it said. (based on the Guardian).
Addressing a rally in Caracas on Saturday Maduro said “The Bolivarian revolution will continue to lead the government and the people will continue to lead the motherland. There will be no empire, no puppets, no clowns and no parasites who can go against the will of the people of Venezuela”
What will happen next? Who will take over?
To be continued!
