Curaçao, like many Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, is disproportionately exposed to developments in the US due to geographical proximity, significant economic activity, consumption of US goods, and the influence of US soft power. Similar to LAC, we should be paying close attention to the US elections.
While Biden’s last State of the Union address failed to mention LAC, the next US administration must realize that our region cannot be reduced to just migration and transnational crime (largely driven by the insatiable demand for drugs in the US). LAC nations will be looking early on for signs at the 2025 Summit of the Americas to see whether the new administration will engage more deeply or return to the ‘overpromise and underdeliver’ cycle of the past. For too long, the US has not sought genuine partnership, often dictating its own terms. In this increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, the US needs allies in LAC.
Harris and Trump are expected to approach the region differently.
Harris would continue to focus on climate, democracy, human rights, regional economic partnerships, and combating illicit trafficking. Biden-Harris has had limited success in addressing crises in Haiti, Venezuela, and the migration predicament from Central America. Her administration might seek to strengthen ties with key partners such as Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil which recently have been marked by tensions. She has indicated support for immigration reform and deeper engagement in Caribbean diplomacy.
Trump, on the other hand, would likely adopt a more isolationist stance, focusing on competition with China, Russia, and Iran, while potentially undermining relations with leftist governments in Brazil and Colombia. His approach to immigration could involve stricter border policies and mass deportations.
The impact of his proposed 10% import tariff hike would likely lead to a 0.2% decrease in overall growth in LAC (The Economist, August 22, 2024) and shift trade dynamics toward China. His energy policy would shift away from the green agenda, favoring fossil fuel investments in countries like Guyana and Suriname. Relations with Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua would likely deteriorate, while his administration would closely scrutinize Chinese ties in the Caribbean, especially in Dominica and Antigua & Barbuda.
In both scenarios, US-LAC relations will remain complex, influenced by ongoing international tensions and the US’s weakened democratic image due to internal political turmoil and polarization. Both candidates should, this time, take ambassadorial appointments in LAC seriously, particularly in key countries like Colombia and the Dominican Republic.
Despite the challenges, merchandise trade between the US and LAC exceeded $1.1 trillion in 2023, with Mexico overtaking China as the US’s largest trading partner.
Much is at stake: US-LAC relations require more than just a focus on migration and crime. It demands a strategic approach to geopolitics, trade, and energy, with the latter two being our autonomous responsibilities.
Yet, we (government, universities, political parties) don’t seem interested in offering analysis and discussion to enhance understanding of the potential policy impact of the next US President and Congress on our country and region. Regrettable.
Alex David Rosaria (53) is a freelance consultant active in Asia & Pacific. He is a former Member of Parliament, Minister of Economic Affairs, State Secretary of Finance and UN Implementation Officer in Africa and Central America. He’s from Curaçao and has a MBA from the University of Iowa. (USA).