Assuming President Maduro stays in power despite everything, I’ll outline some possible scenarios that are not set in stone but could serve as a basis for discussion.
(1) Liberalization and Deregulation of Certain Markets: This includes partial dollarization, which may provide some individuals with greater economic opportunities. However, this reform has not reached the masses; data from the National Survey on Living Conditions shows that inequality has drastically increased. The economy that is flourishing is parallel to the majority of Venezuelans who are far from reaching it. A political opening seems unlikely. There will likely be more repression and less transparency—similar to Nicaragua—to ensure more victories.
(2) Increased Demand for Sanctions: Experts are divided over their effectiveness. Sanctions can be effective, as seen in the case of South Africa, but they can also fail and backfire, as demonstrated in Iran and Venezuela (mass exodus to the U.S. and the region). Is there an appetite for more sanctions? In my opinion, U.S. sanctions without the participation of Venezuela's main commercial partners (China, Turkey, Brazil, and Colombia) would fail.
(3) Venezuela Will Become More Involved in Criminal Networks: This involves illegal businesses like gold and drug trafficking to generate cash flow within the country. The use of dark ships to clandestinely sell crude oil will increase. According to Venezuela’s Cocaine Revolution (2022), the country is close to becoming the fourth-largest producer of cocaine globally. This parallel economy will flourish to the benefit of a small group. Venezuela will bolster its ties with local criminal groups like Tren de Aragua and international ones like FARC-EP, ELN, Segunda Marquetalia, and Hezbollah, allowing them to operate on Venezuelan territory with impunity in our region. We must remain vigilant about the criminal spillovers and illegal trade.
(4) Venezuela Will Strengthen Its Alliances with Russia, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and China.
(5) The Likelihood of More People Abandoning Venezuela is Increasing: This is due to repression and the humanitarian crisis caused by poverty, a failed agricultural management system, a stagnant oil industry, and a poorly diversified economy. The question is whether we will see a drastic increase near us. Studies conducted by organizations working with refugees indicate that in recent years, thousands of undocumented individuals have left Curaçao, indicating that for many, it is not the final destination but a transit point. It should not surprise us that we see a significant flow (temporary). What is important is to realize that we must ratify the Refugee Treaty (1954) and implement a refugee management plan.
(6) The Most Likely Path to Change Will Not Be Through Sanctions or Interventions from Abroad: Mass demonstrations, prolonged protests, and nonviolent resistance appear to be the only options left for Venezuelans.
Willemstad
Note: A "dark ship" refers to a vessel that turns off its Automatic Identification System so that maritime authorities cannot track its location.
Alex David Rosaria (53) is a freelance consultant active in Asia & Pacific. He is a former Member of Parliament, Minister of Economic Affairs, State Secretary of Finance and UN Implementation Officer in Africa and Central America. He’s from Curaçao and has a MBA from the University of Iowa. (USA).
