With just one full day left before Curaçao heads to the polls, the political landscape is brimming with anticipation. The current ruling party, MFK, appears poised to once again emerge as the largest party. However, in local politics, winning the most votes does not always translate into governing power. As the popular saying goes, "Gana anochi, pèrdè mainta" (Win at night, lose in the morning), a reminder that election victories can be fleeting if coalition dynamics do not align.
One of the key scenarios emerging ahead of Friday’s results is whether MFK will be able to secure enough seats to govern independently. If not, the fate of the government will rest in the hands of the smaller parties. If PNP, MAN/PIN, and PAR together secure at least eleven seats, they could unite to form a coalition and effectively sideline MFK. This possibility adds an extra layer of suspense to the election outcome.
MAN/PIN has run a highly organized campaign, appealing to the middle class with strong messaging centered on combating poverty and strengthening the economy. Their approach positions them as a serious alternative to MFK, which is often seen as leaning too heavily toward socialism. Meanwhile, PAR has gained traction with its ambitious promise to eliminate sales tax and income tax—an especially enticing proposition for voters feeling the financial strain under MFK’s leadership.
In this scenario, PNP would emerge as the kingmaker. Having been previously ejected from the coalition with MFK, PNP faces a crucial decision: return to their former partners or align with MAN/PIN and PAR to forge a new government. Their choice will ultimately shape the political future of Curaçao.
Despite MFK's apparent popularity, as seen in the abundance of party flags on cars, political analysts caution against taking this at face value. Many voters prefer to keep their political preferences private, creating the possibility of a surprising election result. The so-called "silent majority" may well tip the scales in unexpected ways.
As Curaçao stands on the cusp of a new parliamentary term, the coming hours will determine the direction of the island’s leadership. Will MFK retain power, or will a coalition of smaller parties reshape the government? One thing is certain: this election is far from predictable, and Friday’s results could usher in a morning of surprises.
