Election 2024: The U.S. Presidency’s Impact on Curaçao’s Future:  

The rehabilitation of slavery, colonialism, and their lingering effects remain critical topics in the Caribbean, particularly in countries like Curaçao, where the legacy of these issues continues to shape societal structures. As the global conversation intensifies around reparations, decolonization, and historical justice, the next U.S. presidency could have a significant influence on how these matters are addressed in the region. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the 2024 election, their policies will shape the Caribbean’s approach to justice, tourism, and economic development, including the revival of Curaçao’s oil refinery.  

Tourism: A Key Sector for Curaçao  

Curaçao’s economy heavily relies on tourism, with a growing interest in attracting upscale visitors. The U.S. remains a significant market, and both presidential candidates will have different impacts on the industry. Donald Trump’s past term showed a tendency toward protectionist measures, potentially imposing more travel restrictions, which could limit American tourism to Curaçao. His previous travel bans and immigration policies restricted mobility, and if reinstated, could hurt Curaçao’s efforts to increase its market share of high-end tourists.  

On the other hand, Kamala Harris, with her focus on multilateral cooperation and open policies, could take a more favorable approach to global mobility. Her administration would likely encourage more consistent travel policies, helping Curaçao to attract a steady flow of American tourists, thus boosting its recovery from the economic impacts of the pandemic. Harris’ emphasis on sustainability might also align with Curaçao’s interest in eco-friendly and upscale tourism.  

The Refinery: Key to Economic Revival  

Curaçao’s Isla Refinery, once a vital part of its economy, has been stalled due to the collapse of its primary partner, Venezuela’s state oil company, and U.S. sanctions against the Venezuelan government. The future of the refinery is a significant concern for the island’s economy, especially its ability to generate jobs and economic stability. Both Trump and Harris would handle this situation differently.  

If Trump wins, the continuation or even intensification of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela is almost certain. Trump’s hardline approach to Venezuela would make it difficult for Curaçao to import oil from Venezuela, even if there is interest in reactivating the refinery. While Trump could be open to oil deals that directly benefit U.S. interests, his previous stance shows little sign of flexibility for smaller economies like Curaçao.  

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, might adopt a more diplomatic approach toward Venezuela. Although she would likely maintain some sanctions, Harris could be more open to negotiations that prioritize regional stability. This could create space for Curaçao to restart the refinery, potentially under humanitarian or energy-based exceptions to the sanctions. Harris would likely support policies that help small Caribbean nations recover economically, which might include energy deals that align with broader climate or regional development goals.  

Trump’s Stance on Colonialism and Reparations  

Donald Trump has historically downplayed systemic issues like colonialism, racism, and reparations. His administration showed little interest in the Caribbean’s calls for reparations and justice for slavery. If Trump wins the 2024 election, he is expected to continue ignoring international pressure from organizations like CARICOM, which have long advocated for reparations for slavery and the dismantling of colonial legacies. His focus will remain on national sovereignty and economic pragmatism, disregarding calls from former colonies to reckon with their colonial pasts.  

Trump’s relationship with the Caribbean would likely stay transactional, focusing on economic interests rather than addressing historical injustices. Curaçao, like other Caribbean nations, may find it challenging to engage Trump’s administration on reparations or issues of racial justice, as his policies lean toward minimizing the role of international organizations, such as the United Nations, in pushing for accountability.  

Harris: A Focus on Justice and Cooperation  

Kamala Harris, with her Jamaican heritage, could bring a more empathetic approach to the table when it comes to issues of colonialism, slavery, and reparations. Harris has expressed strong support for social justice movements and racial equity, which could translate into a willingness to engage with Caribbean leaders on these matters. Her administration would likely re-engage with multilateral organizations like the U.N. and be more open to discussions about reparations and historical accountability.  

Harris’ focus on diplomacy and cooperation would likely see the U.S. playing a more supportive role in initiatives led by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), which continues to push for reparations from former colonizers. While direct financial reparations from the U.S. remain unlikely due to political obstacles, Harris could emphasize development programs, regional partnerships, and educational initiatives that address the inequalities rooted in colonialism and slavery.  

Venezuela and Geopolitical Conflict  

Both Trump and Harris would approach the geopolitical situation in the Caribbean, particularly regarding Venezuela, differently. Under Trump, Curaçao risks being drawn further into the U.S.’s aggressive stance against Venezuela. Given the island’s proximity and strategic location, Trump’s administration could increase the U.S. military or intelligence presence in Curaçao, potentially expanding its use as a surveillance hub. This would not only heighten regional tensions but also put Curaçao in a precarious position with its neighbors.  

In contrast, a Harris presidency would likely focus on diplomatic solutions and regional cooperation, reducing the chances of Curaçao becoming embroiled in geopolitical conflicts. While the U.S. might still use its intelligence capabilities in the Caribbean under Harris, it would likely be in coordination with broader regional stability efforts, avoiding the aggressive tactics that might occur under Trump. 

Conclusion: What the Future Holds for Curaçao  

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Curaçao may face challenges in its tourism, economic, and diplomatic sectors. Strict travel restrictions, a hardline stance on Venezuela, and a lack of interest in historical justice movements could stall the island’s growth. Curaçao might have to navigate its way around U.S. sanctions to restart its oil refinery and continue to struggle for acknowledgment of its colonial past.  

In contrast, if Kamala Harris takes office, Curaçao could benefit from more open policies on tourism and a diplomatic approach to regional issues, including Venezuela. Harris’ potential engagement with international justice movements and multilateral organizations could provide Curaçao with opportunities to address both its historical grievances and its future economic development. 

In either scenario, the island’s future remains intertwined with U.S. foreign policy, and the next president will play a critical role in shaping Curaçao’s path forward.