WILLEMSTAD – The Knowledge Center of the University of the Dutch Caribbean (UDC) has conducted a poll regarding the political preferences of voters in Curaçao for the upcoming elections on March 21, 2025. An analysis of this poll compared to the results of the 2021 elections reveals a reasonable level of accuracy. 

In the most recent poll, 67 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for the MFK party, followed by the PNP with 13 percent and Man-Pin with 7 percent. Smaller parties, such as PAR, Kousa Promé, and KEM, remain below the electoral threshold. This poll was conducted between February 19 and 27, 2025. 

2021 Elections 

For the 2021 Island Council elections, UDC also published a poll that showed MFK and PNP in the lead. The actual results on March 19, 2021, confirmed these predictions: MFK secured 28 percent of the vote and nine seats, while PNP received 12 percent and four seats. Both seat counts were heavily influenced by the high number of remaining seats—nine out of 21. 

The voter turnout in 2021 was nearly 74 percent, an increase from previous years. However, UDC’s poll had predicted an 81 percent turnout, which affected its accuracy. This year, the number of eligible voters has dropped to just under 112,000, compared to over 116,000 in 2021. 

The UDC poll from 2021 demonstrated a reasonable degree of accuracy, especially for larger parties like MFK and MAN. However, there were significant discrepancies with PNP and PAR, where the poll overestimated PNP and underestimated PAR. Additionally, the rise of TPK was not anticipated in the poll. 

Reliability of UDC Polls 

In 2023, UDC emphasized the importance of representativeness, reliability, and objectivity in their research methods. They base their studies on random samples and usually fund these independently or with media support to ensure independence. 

The consistency between UDC’s polls and actual election results strengthens confidence in the accuracy of their polling, especially when considering the 2021 data.