WILLEMSTAD - This hurricane season is expected to exhibit heightened activity due to a confluence of factors. Record-high ocean temperatures, combined with the development of a La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, will weaken the Atlantic trade winds and wind shear.
These weakenings contribute to the formation of tropical storms. Simultaneously, a lot of thermal energy is available to fuel these tropical storms.
According to NOAA, it is also possible that the West African monsoon will be above average. East African waves can form, causing large and long-lasting Atlantic storms.
Harvey, Irma, and Maria
The hurricane season of 2017 had similar conditions: sea temperatures were high, and it was during a La Niña. That year saw the emergence of the disastrous hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. A 2018 study suggests that hurricanes of similar magnitude to those in 2017 could occur one and a half to two times more frequently by 2080.
This depends on the extent of climate change by that time. In the 2017 hurricane season, seventeen named storms developed, ten hurricanes, and six major hurricanes. The first hurricane to be named this year will be called Alberto.
