WILLEMSTAD – The opinion poll conducted by Kenniscentrum Curaçao and The University of The Dutch Caribbean was largely accurate, though clear differences emerged when compared to the actual results of the March 21, 2025, elections.
The poll, conducted in late February and early March, indicated that 76% of respondents intended to vote. However, actual voter turnout was 69%, with 67.5% of the votes deemed valid. MFK emerged as the largest party in both the poll and the election but secured one fewer seat than predicted. The poll attributed 67% of the vote to MFK, which would have translated to 14 seats, while the party ultimately received 55.2% of the vote and won 13 seats.
The poll notably underestimated support for PAR, which secured 10% of the vote and two seats, compared to the predicted 4% and one seat. PNP also performed better than expected, while smaller parties like KEM, Miho Korsou, and Trabou pa Korsou failed to win any seats in both the poll and the election.
According to researchers, the discrepancy between the poll and the actual results can be partially explained by the 14% of respondents who indicated they were undecided or uncertain about voting. Additionally, some voters either refused to disclose their party preference or had not yet decided at the time of the poll.
MFK was the most popular party across all age groups, particularly among voters under 40, where it received 89% support. Meanwhile, PNP, MAN-PIN, and PAR performed better among voters aged 40 and older.
Regarding individual politicians, Javier Silvania and Gilmar Pisas ranked first and second in both the poll and the election results. A notable shift was seen with Quincy Girigorie, who placed 12th in the poll but broke into the top three in the election. Researchers attribute this to PAR's stronger-than-expected electoral performance.
MFK was the leading party in 104 out of 107 polling stations, indicating that geographical or socioeconomic factors had minimal influence on voting behavior, according to the study.