WILLEMSTAD - Hurricane Melissa claimed 61 lives and caused billions of dollars in damage across the Caribbean, according to a new analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA). The study concludes that climate change made the storm six times more likely and significantly more destructive.

Researchers found that the sea surface temperature in the affected region was more than one degree Celsius warmer than in past decades. This additional heat allowed the storm to absorb more energy, fueling its intensity.

Storm Was 50% More Intense Than It Would Have Been Without Climate Change

The study determined that extreme rainfall associated with Hurricane Melissa was 50 percent heavier due to global warming. In Jamaica, the likelihood of such torrential rains doubled, while in eastern Cuba, the chance increased ninefold. 
Wind speeds were also 7 percent stronger than they would have been in a pre-industrial climate. According to WWA, a storm of Melissa’s intensity would typically occur once every 1,700 years in the current climate — compared to only once every 8,100 years without climate change.

Massive Human and Economic Toll

Melissa made landfall in Jamaica on October 28 as a Category 5 hurricane, devastating infrastructure, homes, and public facilities. The Jamaican government opened 881 shelters, while Cuba evacuated 735,000 people in anticipation of the storm. 
A total of 61 people lost their lives, primarily in Jamaica and Haiti. Agricultural regions such as St. Elizabeth, known as Jamaica’s “breadbasket,” were left in ruins.

The financial toll is staggering. Jamaica’s total damage is expected to exceed available disaster funds and insurance coverage. While a US$150 million catastrophe bond will be paid out, analysts warn that the overall economic impact could rival the size of Jamaica’s entire economy.

Experts Warn of a ‘Dangerous New Reality’

Climate scientists describe Hurricane Melissa as part of a “dangerous new reality” for the Caribbean, where warming oceans are making the most extreme storms both more frequent and more destructive.

“The Caribbean remains one of the world’s most hurricane-prone regions, yet it contributes very little to global greenhouse gas emissions,” the WWA report emphasizes. Researchers are urging for greater investment in climate resilience, disaster preparedness, and regional meteorological research to protect vulnerable island nations.

As one expert summarized: “Hurricane Melissa is a tragic reminder that the Caribbean is on the front line of a crisis it did not cause.”