WILLEMSTAD - “It is not that we do not realize that the measures are strict and that they hit the population hard. We do realize that. But what we also realize is what the consequences will be if we don't follow these measures,” said epidemiologist Dr. Izzy Gerstenbluth during an urgent and almost emotional plea to the people of Curaçao.
Dr. Izzy Gerstenbluth begged the people to follow the government's instructions and stay at home.
“That still happens far too little,” said the doctor, who used slides to paint a shocking but clear picture of what the consequences would be if the instructions were not or not fully followed.
The epidemiologist showed on the screen images of the number of hospital beds on the six islands and outlined - using a calculation by the local health authorities and the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) - a picture of various possible scenarios.
“If we do not take any measures in Curaçao and allow the spreading of the coronavirus take place in full, we will need 5,000 hospital beds at the peak. If you take certain measures and reduce the transmission by 40 percent, you are still above the available capacity. If the transmission is reduced by 50 percent, you are just at your capacity and possibly even above it. The only way not to exceed our medical capacity from Covid-19 and other diseases is to reduce 60 percent or more of the transmission. And how do we do that? By doing what we do now,” says Gerstenbluth.
“By taking measures such as closing the borders, closing the schools, stopping movement as much as possible, and introducing a curfew, but also a day clock. And then it depends entirely on how well we follow these rules if we can actually reduce the transmission by 60 percent.”
Regarding the intensive care unit, it is also necessary to strictly follow the rules; the capacity is even lower there, Gerstenbluth emphasizes. “If you do nothing, you will be beyond, but far beyond your capacity in the intensive care unit. Then you need more than 1,500 intensive care beds and we do not have them. If you reduce 40 percent of the transmission of the virus here, we are still nowhere near. Because then we would need 500 beds in the ICU. We don't have that either.”
“With a 50 percent reduction in transmission, we are still above the IC capacity in Curaçao,” says the doctor.
“Again, on the IC, the only way to survive the catastrophe coming at us is to reduce 60 percent or more of the transmission. I am not talking about a catastrophe because of the disease, but because we exceed our capacity of care. We must guard it. Remember we're not just dealing with Covid-19; there are several other sick patients that we deal with on a daily basis and that need to be cared for. Think of people with high blood pressure, people with diabetes, people who are at an increased risk of heart attack or stroke, victims of traffic accidents, cancer patients and others with serious conditions. They too will be disadvantaged because in any other scenario, beds will no longer be available,” says Gerstenbluth.
The epidemiologist emphasized, "If we disregard the rules and still take to the streets when this is not necessary, we will not reach 60 percent. And folks, understand, if we don't hit the 60 percent mark, any other scenario will get us into serious trouble. That is why we insist that the instructions must be followed properly.”
