WILLEMSTAD – The Caribbean is set for another hot period in the coming months, but the heat is expected to be less extreme than in 2023 and 2024, according to the latest climate forecast from the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) for April to June 2025.
While the region prepares for its annual warm and wet season, CariCOF predicts that temperatures will rise rapidly from April, with potential heatwaves starting in May. However, the intensity of the expected heat is forecasted to remain below the record-breaking levels of the past two years.
In many areas, sea surface temperatures are still up to 1.5°C above normal, increasing the likelihood of higher air temperatures and extreme weather conditions.
Heat Stress and Rainfall Risks
The risk of heat stress remains high in low-wind and drought-prone areas. At the same time, the chances of heavy rainfall are expected to increase, particularly from May onward in the Bahamas, the Guianas, and the Greater Antilles. In June, Belize and the Lesser Antilles are likely to experience more rainfall.
CariCOF warns that the risk of flooding and landslides is above normal, especially in mountainous regions.
Drought Expected for ABC Islands
The ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao) are an exception to this trend. The forecast for these islands suggests that conditions will remain predominantly dry between April and June, with a high likelihood of prolonged drought.
An additional factor influencing the climate is the frequent arrival of Saharan dust from Africa. This phenomenon can lead to warmer and drier conditions, while also making weather patterns more unpredictable. According to climate experts, Saharan dust affects both rainfall frequency and the intensity of extreme weather events.
Regional Forecasts May Vary
CariCOF’s predictions are based on data from regional and international meteorological institutes. While the forecast provides a general outlook for the Caribbean, more detailed country-specific predictions are available from national weather services.