WILLEMSTAD – The Atlantic hurricane season officially began yesterday, and it is expected to be more active than average. According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), between 13 and 19 named tropical storms are forecast this year, with 6 to 10 of them potentially becoming hurricanes. Of those, 3 to 5 could reach major hurricane status—Category 3 or higher—with sustained winds exceeding 178 kilometers per hour.
The anticipated increase in storm activity is driven by a combination of meteorological factors. NOAA reports that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico are currently above average, providing more energy for storm formation. Additionally, the absence of El Niño or La Niña phenomena has created favorable conditions for storm development. Wind shear—differences in wind speed at varying altitudes—is also relatively weak, allowing storms to strengthen more easily. The West African monsoon, which generates tropical waves, is another contributing factor.
Hurricane Season Runs Through November
The Atlantic hurricane season officially spans from June 1 to November 30, a window during which more than 97% of all tropical storms typically form. These dates have been used by U.S. authorities since 1965. However, history has shown that storms can occasionally form outside of this timeframe, including in the month of May.
Improved Early Warnings and Forecast Accuracy
To better prepare residents, NOAA has introduced several enhancements to its forecasting tools. For the first time, warnings and predictions can now be issued up to 48 hours before a storm has officially formed. The well-known “storm cone”—which maps the predicted path of a storm—has been expanded to include flood risk zones and land-based hazards. New maps are also being deployed to visualize the risk of dangerous coastal currents. Additionally, NOAA has upgraded its forecasting models to improve the accuracy of storm intensity and trajectory by approximately 5%.
Urging Early Preparedness in the Caribbean
NOAA stresses that early preparation is critical. While the official start date of the season is today, tropical activity can—and has—occurred before June. Residents of hurricane-prone coastal areas, including those in the Caribbean, are strongly advised to prepare now. This includes assembling emergency supply kits and reviewing evacuation plans.
With conditions ripe for a busy season, authorities are urging vigilance and readiness across all vulnerable regions.
