MIAMI - The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be much more intense than usual, warns the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This is attributed to exceptionally high sea temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.
NOAA scientists have revised their earlier prediction of near-normal activity to above-normal activity for the current hurricane season. The warm Atlantic Sea surface temperatures are expected to counteract the often-inhibiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Niño event.
El Niño
El Niño is a climatic phenomenon characterized by abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon has a global impact on weather patterns and can also influence the development of tropical cyclones, including hurricanes.
While El Niño often tends to inhibit hurricane development, there have been cases where El Niño had no significant effect on the hurricane season.
According to NOAA's Matthew Rosencrans, Chief Hurricane Season Forecaster, the key climate factors for this season are the ongoing El Niño and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, as well as the record-warm Atlantic Sea surface temperatures.
Although El Niño typically restricts tropical cyclone activity, the inhibiting conditions for this season have developed slowly and may be absent for a significant portion of the remainder of the hurricane season.
New Forecast
The likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has been raised to sixty percent, up from the previous prediction of thirty percent in May. The chance of near-normal activity has decreased to twenty-five percent, while the likelihood of a below-normal season is estimated at fifteen percent.
This update predicts 14-21 named storms, of which 6-11 may become hurricanes, and 2-5 of those may become major hurricanes. This forecast has a seventy percent reliability and includes all the storms that have formed so far this season.
This year, the hurricane season started early with five storms reaching at least tropical storm strength, one of which has already become a hurricane. An average hurricane season produces fourteen storms, seven of which become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.